Reasons varied: From stabilising demand post-Covid to stricter visa norms to more overseas options.
After driving the post-pandemic rebound in international student numbers on American campuses, India is now seeing a sharp downturn, with US State Department data showing a 38 per cent drop in F-1 student visas issued to Indians in the first nine months of 2024 as compared to the same period last year.
An analysis by The Indian Express of monthly non-immigrant visa reports available on the Bureau of Consular Affairs’ website shows that F-1 visas issued to Indian students have hit their lowest post-pandemic level.
From January to September this year, 64,008 visas were issued — a marked decline from 1,03,495 in the same months of 2023. Data shows that 65,235 visas were issued during the same period in 2021 and 93,181 in 2022. In the pandemic-hit year of 2020, just 6,646 F-1 visas were issued to Indians during the first nine months.
The decline is not unique to Indian students, though it is far more pronounced. For instance, Chinese students, who now represent the second largest international cohort in the US, have also seen a decrease in visa issuances, but by a comparatively modest 8 per cent in 2024. A total of 73,781 F-1 visas were issued to Chinese students from January to September this year, down from 80,603 last year, though still higher than the 52,034 issued in 2022.
The F-1 visa is a non-immigrant category for students attending academic institutions in the US, while the M-1 visa covers vocational and non-academic programmes. The Indian Express analysis focussed on F-1 visas, which account for over 90 per cent of US student visas annually.
The drop in F-1 issuances to Indian students assumes significance against the backdrop of two milestones achieved by Indians in US higher education recently. In the 2022-2023 financial year (October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023), India surpassed China in new student visa issuances for the first time. While China remained the largest source of total international students that year, this too changed in 2023-24, when Indians became the largest international student cohort in American universities, according to the latest Open Doors 2024 report.
The Open Doors 2024 report showed that there were 3,31,000 Indian students in the US in 2023-24 (29.4 per cent of around 1.1 million international students in the US), while there were 2,77,000 Chinese students in the same year (24.6 per cent of the international student population in the US).
Asked about the reasons for the sharp decline in F-1 visa issuance to Indians and whether it was due to fewer applications or a higher rejection rate, a US State Department spokesperson did not comment specifically on the data. Instead, the spokesperson noted that “individual monthly issuance reports do not necessarily provide accurate issuance totals for the fiscal year to date”.
However, there isn’t any significant difference between the data from past annual visa issuance figures of the US State Department and the monthly visa issuance numbers for the same period. For instance, the department’s annual figure as available on a nonimmigrant visa issuance ‘detail table’ on the website, for the financial year 2021-2022 (October 1, 2021, to September 30, 2022) recorded a total of 1,15,115 F-1 visas issued to Indian students, while the cumulative number from monthly visa reports showed 1,15,204. Similarly, for the financial year 2023 (October 1, 2022, to September 30, 2023), the annual figure was 1,30,730 student visas issued to Indians, compared to 1,30,839 in the monthly reports.
Even as the exact reason behind the drop remains unclear, it has been learnt that as many as 20,000 student visa appointment slots allocated for Indian citizens during the peak visa application season this year (May, June and July) went unused. This, The Indian Express has learnt, points to a potential shift on the demand side, which is being interpreted as demand stabilising after the post-Covid rebound uptick.
Foreign education consultants in India have pointed to student anxieties associated with visa processing challenges, including long waiting times for interviews, as another possible reason for the decline in F-1 visa issuances this year. Vibha Kagzi, CEO at ReachIvy.com, noted that while the US remains a top destination, more students are exploring alternatives like Canada, the UK and Germany to keep options open. “The gap between demand and supply of visa slots, combined with stricter interview assessments, could explain the reduced F-1 visa numbers. While the journey from application to visa approval has become more challenging, it is not unachievable,” she said.
Piyush Kumar, Regional Director for South Asia at IDP Education, said: “There is a greater emphasis by US immigration on attracting high-quality and genuine students, which might explain the gradual decline in approved visas for students applying to less suitable institutions.”
On the visa processing delays, a US State Department spokesperson said they have dedicated “significant resources to improving wait times in India” and are committed to getting their staff “the tools, resources and support they need to bring appointment wait times down.”
“Wait times do not mean that people are not being issued visas. They simply reflect the extremely high level of demand for a US visa. In fact, some of our busiest visa-issuing posts — including India — have broken visa issuance records in recent years. As we increase staffing and take advantage of technology and other innovations to improve processing and reduce interview wait times, we have consistently been able to add visa interview appointments for visitors, students and other visa categories,” the spokesperson said.
It has been learnt that every first-time student applicant in India seeking a visa interview this year was able to secure one. However, US authorities are considering whether student visa interview appointment slots for the peak months of April, May, June and July should be made available earlier for blocking, potentially before January. This move aims to assist students making early decisions about pursuing higher studies in the US and prevent them from being discouraged by the unavailability of future slots at that time.
